San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Amarillo, TX...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Apr 10, 2015 - Sat, Apr 11, 2015
D7
Mon, Apr 13, 2015 - Tue, Apr 14, 2015
D5
Sat, Apr 11, 2015 - Sun, Apr 12, 2015
D8
Tue, Apr 14, 2015 - Wed, Apr 15, 2015
D6
Sun, Apr 12, 2015 - Mon, Apr 13, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070836
SPC AC 070836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE/BROAD SCALE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND LOCATION OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO RENDER DELINEATION OF SMALL
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY ENHANCED SEVERE RISK DIFFICULT.
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT EXISTS DAY 4 /FRI 4-10/ WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE WITH A RISK AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAXIMIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE GREAT LAKES/ERN
CANADA UPPER SYSTEM...HAIL/WIND RISK IS APPARENT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE DAY 4/EARLY DAY 5 AND
SAGS SWD TO THE GULF COAST REGION...NWWD ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO TX SHOULD CONTINUE...AS SWLYS ALOFT SUPPORT SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SELYS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED VEERING WIND
PROFILES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
RISK.
BEYOND DAY 5...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES...AS A SRN-STREAM
UPPER FEATURE CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/LOCATION/ORIENTATION. THIS CONTINUES INTO LATTER STAGES OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE FEATURE PHASES WITH -- AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED BY -- A NRN-STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY
7 /MON 4-13/. GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN...PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE RISK REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT
ATTM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GOSS.. 04/07/2015
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