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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Updated: Tue Apr 28 08:38:03 UTC 2015
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 28, 2015
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, May 01, 2015 - Sat, May 02, 2015 D7Mon, May 04, 2015 - Tue, May 05, 2015
D5Sat, May 02, 2015 - Sun, May 03, 2015 D8Tue, May 05, 2015 - Wed, May 06, 2015
D6Sun, May 03, 2015 - Mon, May 04, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280836
   SPC AC 280836

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SPLIT FLOW WILL
   PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  WHILE INSTABILITY COINCIDENT
   WITH DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S...A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY8 TIME FRAME.  IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   RETURN TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THEN ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD
   DEVELOP MAY 5TH ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX.  FOR NOW THE
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK.

   ..DARROW.. 04/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: April 28, 2015
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