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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Updated: Wed Apr 20 08:54:02 UTC 2016
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 134,703 14,086,772 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 20, 2016
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Apr 23, 2016 - Sun, Apr 24, 2016 D7Tue, Apr 26, 2016 - Wed, Apr 27, 2016
D5Sun, Apr 24, 2016 - Mon, Apr 25, 2016 D8Wed, Apr 27, 2016 - Thu, Apr 28, 2016
D6Mon, Apr 25, 2016 - Tue, Apr 26, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200851
   SPC AC 200851

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
   INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
   SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
   THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
   AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
   AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
   AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
   SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
   TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
   LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
   REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
   THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
   CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
   TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
   NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
   SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
   APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
   WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: April 20, 2016
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