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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Updated: Thu Jan 12 09:37:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,852 7,966,901 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 12, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Jan 15, 2017 - Mon, Jan 16, 2017 D7Wed, Jan 18, 2017 - Thu, Jan 19, 2017
D5Mon, Jan 16, 2017 - Tue, Jan 17, 2017 D8Thu, Jan 19, 2017 - Fri, Jan 20, 2017
D6Tue, Jan 17, 2017 - Wed, Jan 18, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 120935
   SPC AC 120935

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   Models are in good agreement through Sunday/D4 depicting a compact
   shortwave trough moving northeastward out of Mexico across West TX
   during the day, and continuing in a negatively tilted fashion into
   the central Plains by 12Z Monday/D5. At the surface, low pressure
   will move from NM into the TX Panhandle during day, continuing into
   KS by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across
   the body of OK, and into southeast KS and MO. While moisture will
   spread northward behind the warm front, instability is forecast to
   be very weak except along and mainly south of the Red River where
   MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is forecast. Forecast soundings
   show enlarged low-level hodographs, favorable for rotation with any
   storms. Given the rapid advancement of the upper system, a
   quasi-linear storm mode appears most likely, with damaging winds and
   a few tornadoes possible. As such, an initial 15% slight risk is
   warranted. Localized strong winds are also possible into OK, but to
   a lesser extent as instability will be very weak, but still with
   strong lift. 

   For Monday/D5 and beyond, models diverge a bit but the
   aforementioned shortwave trough will continue northeastward across
   the mid and upper MS Valleys, with cold front trailing southwestward
   across the Arklatex into much of eastern TX. Mid to upper 60s
   dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, beneath southwesterly
   midlevel flow on the order of 40-50 kt. This would suggest a
   slow-moving line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some damaging wind
   potential, with flow parallel to the boundary. However, the upper
   wave will continue to depart the region, MUCAPE looks to be
   generally less than 500 J/kg, and the cold front is forecast to
   decelerate. Thus, will defer any upgrade to slight risk to later
   outlooks when predictability increases.

   By Tuesday/D6, another shortwave trough is forecast to move across
   northern Mexico and the southern Plains. This feature currently
   appears too unpredictable for any additional severe areas, but
   whatever boundary is left behind over TX/AR/LA by the D5 system may
   eventually serve as another focus for severe on D6 and D7 farther
   east along the Gulf Coast.

   ..Jewell.. 01/12/2017

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