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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Updated: Sat Feb 25 10:01:02 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 84,154 5,567,693 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...Longview, TX...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 124,749 10,394,924 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Jackson, MS...Huntsville, AL...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Feb 28, 2017 - Wed, Mar 01, 2017 D7Fri, Mar 03, 2017 - Sat, Mar 04, 2017
D5Wed, Mar 01, 2017 - Thu, Mar 02, 2017 D8Sat, Mar 04, 2017 - Sun, Mar 05, 2017
D6Thu, Mar 02, 2017 - Fri, Mar 03, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 250959
   SPC AC 250959

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

   Severe-thunderstorm potential will focus during the
   Tuesday-Wednesday (Days 4-5) period.  Medium-range models (GFS,
   ECMWF, CMC, UKMET) and ensembles are coming into better agreement
   regarding the evolution of a larger-scale mid-level trough moving
   from the western states eastward to the MS Valley on Wednesday.  The
   trough subsequently exits the east coast on Thursday and severe
   potential will likely remain low through Saturday (Day 8) as surface
   high pressure resides over the central Gulf Coast.  

   ...Arkansas and surrounding states on Tuesday-Tuesday night...
   Low-level moisture will contribute to increased buoyancy within a
   broad warm-air-advection regime downstream of the mid-level trough. 
   A cold front is forecast to move into the western part of this area
   late Tuesday along with an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms.

   ...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday...
   Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level
   moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a
   strong shear profile.  The timing of a cold front appears to
   converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area.  Scattered to
   numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe.

   ..Smith.. 02/25/2017

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Page last modified: February 25, 2017
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