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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Updated: Thu Mar 2 08:00:05 UTC 2017
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Mar 05, 2017 - Mon, Mar 06, 2017 D7Wed, Mar 08, 2017 - Thu, Mar 09, 2017
D5Mon, Mar 06, 2017 - Tue, Mar 07, 2017 D8Thu, Mar 09, 2017 - Fri, Mar 10, 2017
D6Tue, Mar 07, 2017 - Wed, Mar 08, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020758
   SPC AC 020758

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2017

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Model consensus is that a progressive upper pattern will persist
   through the day 4-8 period. However, as early as day 5 (Monday)
   increasing ensemble spreads arise regarding the evolution of an
   upper trough forecast to move through the Central Plains into the
   middle to upper MS Valley. Moisture return preceding this feature
   will also be somewhat limited. Although some model solutions
   indicate a threat for severe storms might evolve on day 5 (Monday)
   anywhere from the Southern Plains to middle MS Valley, confidence is
   not sufficient at this time to introduce a 15% probability area.

   ..Dial.. 03/02/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: March 02, 2017
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