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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Updated: Thu Feb 22 10:07:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Feb 25, 2018 - Mon, Feb 26, 2018 D7Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018
D5Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018
D6Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 221005
   SPC AC 221005

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Early day 4 (Sunday) at least a marginal severe threat may be
   ongoing along remnant squall line from the southern Appalachians
   into the Southeast States and possibly continuing into the Middle
   Atlantic. However, tendency will be for the stronger forcing and
   low-level jet to shift away from the more unstable portion of the
   warm sector, limiting overall severe threat.

   The cold front will move into the northern Gulf by day 5 (Monday)
   leaving stable conditions inland. While elevated convection may
   occur as this boundary retreats north as a warm front later day 6
   (Tuesday night), overall severe weather threat should remain low.

   ..Dial.. 02/22/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 22, 2018
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