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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Updated: Fri Feb 23 09:31:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 92,218 6,270,617 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 23, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018 D7Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018
D5Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018 D8Fri, Mar 02, 2018 - Sat, Mar 03, 2018
D6Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 230929
   SPC AC 230929

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

   ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
   The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian
   solutions move a shortwave trough across the eastern states on
   Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to near the
   central Gulf Coast and extend east-northeastward into south-central
   Georgia. A few thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front in
   northern Florida Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, the four models move
   a low-amplitude upper-level ridge across the eastern states.
   Moisture advection is forecast along the Texas Coastal Plains and in
   the lower Mississippi Valley where isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms will be possible and a marginal severe threat cannot
   be ruled out. On Wednesday, the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET move an
   upper-level trough quickly across the Rockies as a mid-level jet
   ejects northeastward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. These
   solutions suggest a severe threat will be possible from parts of
   central and north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi
   Valley from Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The magnitude of
   any severe threat would likely depend upon how much moisture return
   can take place.

   ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
   Model solutions diverge markedly late in the day 4 to 8 period. The
   ECMWF maintains west to southwest mid-level flow across the southern
   half of the U.S. and moves a cold front across the Southeast. The
   GFS has the cold front in the Southeast as well but also develops an
   upper-level trough in the southern Plains. The two solutions do
   suggest that a marginal severe threat could develop along the cold
   front during the afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward
   into the Carolinas. On Friday, the models have a large spread of
   solutions. One commonality is that a dry airmass could be in place
   across much of the CONUS keeping the potential for thunderstorm
   development low.

   ..Broyles.. 02/23/2018

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Page last modified: February 23, 2018
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