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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Updated: Sat Feb 24 09:58:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,748 10,362,246 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018 D7Fri, Mar 02, 2018 - Sat, Mar 03, 2018
D5Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018 D8Sat, Mar 03, 2018 - Sun, Mar 04, 2018
D6Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240956
   SPC AC 240956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
   The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian
   move an upper-level ridge across the eastern states on Tuesday as
   moisture return takes place in the southern Plains and lower
   Mississippi Valley. A marginal severe threat will be possible in the
   warm advection regime across the Arklatex on Tuesday but the
   magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday, an
   upper-level trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico. Ahead
   of this system, some severe thunderstorms will be possible from the
   southern Plains into the Arklatex on Wednesday as a low-level jet
   persists across east Texas. The low-level jet is forecast to shift
   northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
   where a severe threat may also occur. The 15 percent contour is
   maintained to account for this potential. On Thursday, the
   upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S.
   although the ECMWF and UKMET are much slower with the shortwave
   trough. This seems reasonable which would place the best chance of
   severe storms in the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
   states Thursday afternoon. The preferred location for severe storms
   will depend upon the timing of the upper-level trough. 

   ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
   On Friday, the models move the upper-level trough off the Southeast
   coast into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves into the Gulf
   of Mexico. A dry airmass is forecast to be in place across most of
   the CONUS on Friday into Saturday. For this reason, the potential
   for thunderstorm development appears low late in the day 4 to 8
   period.

   ..Broyles.. 02/24/2018

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Page last modified: February 24, 2018
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