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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Updated: Sun Feb 25 08:53:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 82,840 10,204,073 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018 D7Sat, Mar 03, 2018 - Sun, Mar 04, 2018
D5Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018 D8Sun, Mar 04, 2018 - Mon, Mar 05, 2018
D6Fri, Mar 02, 2018 - Sat, Mar 03, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250851
   SPC AC 250851

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

   Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
   The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian
   move an upper-level trough from the Desert Southwest into the
   Rockies on Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place
   from the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
   The development of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur on
   Wednesday or Wednesday night from northeast Texas east-northeastward
   into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley as the exit region of a
   strong mid-level jet approaches. This feature along with a low-level
   jet in the Arklatex is forecast to create favorable shear profiles
   for organized severe storms including supercells and fast moving
   line-segments. A few tornadoes and some wind damage will be
   possible. The models move the upper-level trough quickly eastward
   into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday as a cold front advances
   southeastward across the southern Appalachians. Ahead of this front,
   some severe convection will be possible mainly from the eastern Gulf
   Coast States northeastward into the Carolinas but predictability
   remains low.

   ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...
   On Friday, all four solutions move an upper-level low across the
   Mid-Atlantic and into the western Atlantic as a cold front advances
   southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A dry airmass is
   forecast to overtake most of the CONUS on Friday into Saturday
   making thunderstorm potential low. On Sunday, the models have an
   upper-level ridge over the east-central U.S. and show moisture
   return taking place in Texas and Louisiana. Although a marginal
   severe threat can not be ruled out on Sunday across parts of the
   south-central U.S., the spread among solutions is large suggesting
   predictability is low on Sunday.

   ..Broyles.. 02/25/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 25, 2018
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