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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Updated: Mon Feb 26 09:00:04 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018 D7Sun, Mar 04, 2018 - Mon, Mar 05, 2018
D5Fri, Mar 02, 2018 - Sat, Mar 03, 2018 D8Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018
D6Sat, Mar 03, 2018 - Sun, Mar 04, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260858
   SPC AC 260858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
   The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian medium-range models move an
   upper-level trough across the eastern United States on Thursday. At
   the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the eastern
   Carolinas. A few marginally severe storms will be possible along the
   front during the afternoon. The cold front is forecast to move into
   the Gulf of Mexico on Friday as a dry airmass dominates across much
   of the CONUS. This pattern should continue into Saturday making
   thunderstorm development improbable across most of the CONUS.

   ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
   The models remain in reasonable agreement on Sunday with an
   upper-level trough in the western states and an upper-level ridge in
   the eastern states. Moisture return is forecast in the southern
   Plains where a few marginally severe storms could develop during the
   afternoon. On Monday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold
   front are forecast to move into the central U.S. Although
   predictability is low this far out, the pattern would make severe
   thunderstorm development possible in the lower to mid Mississippi
   Valley.

   ..Broyles.. 02/26/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: February 26, 2018
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