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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Updated: Thu Mar 1 08:12:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 1, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Mar 04, 2018 - Mon, Mar 05, 2018 D7Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018
D5Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018
D6Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010810
   SPC AC 010810

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
   The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian solutions move an upper-level
   trough across the Four Corners on Sunday. Large-scale ascent is
   forecast to increase in the southern and central Plains as the
   upper-level trough moves out of the Rockies and into the southern
   high Plains Sunday evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection
   is forecast to take place in the southern Plains where thunderstorm
   development will be possible during the afternoon and evening.
   Considerable uncertainty is present for the forecast on Sunday
   relating to instability and system timing. If moisture return is
   stronger than currently forecast, then a severe threat will be
   possible across parts of the southern and central Plains Sunday
   afternoon and evening. The model solutions diverge on Monday as the
   system moves out of the Great Plains. The GFS is the outlying
   solution with an upper-level low developing over the mid Mississippi
   Valley. The UKMET has the upper-level low further northwest. The
   ECMWF and Canadian have the upper-level low in the upper Mississippi
   Valley. In spite of the disagreement, the models are somewhat
   similar at the surface with a cold front located across the lower
   Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible
   along parts of the front Monday and a marginal severe threat can not
   be ruled out.

   ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
   From Tuesday to Thursday, the model solutions diverge sharply with
   the upper-level pattern. This suggests uncertainty is high across
   the CONUS in the mid-week time-frame. It does appear that a cold
   front will move southeastward to the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday
   where a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. On
   Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front moves off the southern
   Florida coast leaving a dry airmass in its wake. This suggests that
   the potential for thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Thursday
   across the CONUS will remain low.

   ..Broyles.. 03/01/2018

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Page last modified: March 01, 2018
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