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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Updated: Fri Mar 2 09:48:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 2, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018 D7Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018
D5Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 D8Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018
D6Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020946
   SPC AC 020946

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CST Fri Mar 02 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium range model output indicates that a significant cyclone may
   continue to deepen and occlude north/east of the middle Missouri
   Valley on Monday.  Thereafter, blocking over far eastern Canada and
   the western Atlantic is forecast to weaken, allowing for a more
   progressive regime by the middle of next week.  As this occurs, the
   primary initial cyclone is expected to shift eastward into/through
   the Great Lakes and weaken, before possible secondary cyclogenesis
   takes place from the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic coast toward the
   Canadian Maritimes.  Sizable spread appears to exist among the
   deterministic models and their ensemble output concerning this
   latter feature and upstream developments during the middle to latter
   portion of next week.

   With regard to the early week system, a narrowing corridor of modest
   moisture return may still provide a focus for convective
   development, along and ahead of a southeastward advancing cold
   front.  Guidance is suggestive that coinciding stronger pre-frontal
   mid/upper forcing for ascent and vertical shear will become
   displaced to the north of the narrow corridor of pre-frontal
   boundary layer instability by the beginning of this period.  The
   southern edge of the more strongly forced ascent and vertical shear
   may shift from the eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi/Tennessee
   and Kentucky vicinity Monday/Monday night, into parts of eastern
   Georgia and the Carolinas on Tuesday.  These areas could become a
   possible focus for severe storm development with stronger than
   anticipated destabilization.  At the present time, though, this
   potential seems low, with severe probabilities remaining below 15
   percent.

   ..Kerr.. 03/02/2018

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Page last modified: March 02, 2018
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