Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Updated: Sat Mar 3 09:23:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 3, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 D7Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018
D5Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 D8Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018
D6Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030921
   SPC AC 030921

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 AM CST Sat Mar 03 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The medium range models suggest that blocking within the large-scale
   mid/upper flow over eastern North America into the western Atlantic
   will weaken during the early to middle portion of next week, with a
   transition to a more progressive pattern.  It continues to appear
   that short wave developments within this regime may support an
   evolving frontal wave near the Carolina coastal plain on Tuesday,
   although weak destabilization (among a number of factors) currently
   seems likely to result in negligible severe weather potential. 
   Cyclogenesis is then expected to proceed near or east of the Mid
   Atlantic and New England coast by Wednesday.  In its wake, severe
   weather potential across much of the U.S. is expected to remain low
   through the remainder of next week.  There are indications that
   southern/western Gulf of Mexico boundary layer modification will
   allow for a more rapid and substantive moisture return, in
   association with any significant upstream short waves which may
   support surface cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies.  Guidance
   has been suggestive that this is at least possible by early next
   weekend across parts of the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley
   region.  However, the large spread among the models and within their
   ensemble output suggests relatively low predictability by this time.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 03, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities