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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Updated: Sun Mar 4 09:51:03 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 4, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 D7Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018
D5Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 D8Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018
D6Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040949
   SPC AC 040949

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CST Sun Mar 04 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A developing cyclone, near the southern Mid Atlantic coast by the
   beginning of the period, appears likely to proceed northward near
   the coast, toward the northern New England/Canadian Maritimes
   vicinity during the middle to latter portion of the coming work
   week.  In its wake, convective potential is expected to remain low
   across much of the nation for several days, although considerable
   amplification of the mid-latitude westerlies may commence across the
   eastern Pacific into North America.  

   It appears that one or two short wave perturbations on the leading
   edge of this regime may dig to the lee of the Rockies and contribute
   to significant surface cyclogenesis anywhere from the southern
   Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the
   Southeast, next weekend.  Guidance remains suggestive that this
   could be accompanied by a fairly rapid and substantive moisture
   return off the Gulf of Mexico, providing potential for
   destabilization supportive of an increasing severe weather risk. 
   Due to the rather large spread among the model output concerning
   these developments (associated with low pattern predictability and
   the extended time frame), severe weather probabilities for next
   Saturday/Sunday currently remain generally low, but it is at least
   possible that this could change during the coming days.

   ..Kerr.. 03/04/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: March 04, 2018
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