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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Updated: Tue Apr 10 08:51:02 UTC 2018
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 134,994 9,415,294 Dallas, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 10, 2018
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Apr 13, 2018 - Sat, Apr 14, 2018 D7Mon, Apr 16, 2018 - Tue, Apr 17, 2018
D5Sat, Apr 14, 2018 - Sun, Apr 15, 2018 D8Tue, Apr 17, 2018 - Wed, Apr 18, 2018
D6Sun, Apr 15, 2018 - Mon, Apr 16, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 100848
   SPC AC 100848

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 AM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to highlight continued deepening of the
   upper low/trough as it moves eastward across the Plains Day 4
   (Friday), though differences between the GFS and ECMWF are evident
   -- particularly with respect to the surface frontal advance across
   Kansas/Texas/Oklahoma.

   At this time, the much faster GFS appears to be the outlier (in
   accordance with its typical bias), as the Canadian and UKMET runs
   also suggest slower frontal progression more similar to that
   depicted by the ECMWF.  Given the uncertainties, it remains
   difficult to confidently narrow down the envelope of highest severe
   potential, but will make minor adjustments to the prior outlook
   northward (into central Missouri) and westward (toward the DFW
   Metroplex).

   Otherwise, an area centered over the Arklatex appears to be at risk
   for severe storms, as boundary-layer moistening/strengthening
   southerly flow spread beneath increasing mid-level winds yield an
   amply sheared/unstable warm sector.  Along with risk for hail,
   locally damaging winds and potential for a couple of tornadoes will
   be possible during the afternoon and evening.

   By Day 5/Saturday, uncertainties highlighted for Day 4 become
   increasingly apparent.  This -- combined with the likelihood for
   widespread/ongoing convection Saturday morning -- precludes
   confident assessment of severe potential into the
   Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast area.

   Predictability concerns linger through the remainder of the medium
   range, as this system shifts into the eastern U.S. and the next
   upper trough shifts into/across the western half of the country.

   ..Goss.. 04/10/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: April 10, 2018
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