(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280829
SPC AC 280829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
ECMWF has been the most consistent model generating a surface low
over the Arklatex immediately ahead of a surging arctic front. This
feature will be induced by a pronounced mid-level short-wave trough
that is forecast to translate across the lower MS Valley through the
Mid-South by Sunday evening. Latest guidance suggests higher-PW air
mass should advance to near the TN border ahead of the surface wave
which should allow a broad warm sector to materialize prior to
frontal passage. It appears strong-severe organized convection could
develop ahead of the short wave as strong shear and adequate
buoyancy will be in place prior to convective development.
Beyond day4, severe potential will be low into the middle of next
week as moisture/instability are shunted well offshore.
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