Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2019
Updated: Sun Nov 24 10:00:03 UTC 2019
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - Thu, Nov 28, 2019
D7
Sat, Nov 30, 2019 - Sun, Dec 01, 2019
D5
Thu, Nov 28, 2019 - Fri, Nov 29, 2019
D8
Sun, Dec 01, 2019 - Mon, Dec 02, 2019
D6
Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - Sat, Nov 30, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240958
SPC AC 240958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward
from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast on Wednesday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established in the southern Plains.
Thunderstorm development may occur in western parts of the southern
Plains Wednesday night as a shortwave trough approaches the region.
No severe threat is expected.
On Thursday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S. as an upper-level low moves into the western U.S.
Thunderstorm development could take place in parts of the
south-central U.S. where moisture advection is forecast. But
instability should be too weak for a severe threat.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
On Friday, the medium-range models move an upper-level trough across
the Desert Southwest as southwest mid-level flow remains over the
southern and central Plains. Moisture advection is forecast to take
place in the southern Plains where enough instability could develop
for a severe threat Friday afternoon and evening. The ECMWF is
slower than the GFS with the timing of the upper-level trough. The
ECMWF would place a severe threat in west Texas and western Oklahoma
while the GFS would favor central Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A
severe threat area could be added to parts of the southern Plains in
later outlooks if the models can agree better.
On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move
eastward across the northern U.S. but model spread concerning the
timing of the system is large. At this point, the greatest potential
for a severe threat would be in the Arklatex on Saturday and in the
Southeast on Sunday. Predictability is too low to add a threat area
for either of these areas at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/24/2019
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