Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 25, 2019
Updated: Mon Nov 25 09:59:02 UTC 2019
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
87,446
11,371,357
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Nov 28, 2019 - Fri, Nov 29, 2019
D7
Sun, Dec 01, 2019 - Mon, Dec 02, 2019
D5
Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - Sat, Nov 30, 2019
D8
Mon, Dec 02, 2019 - Tue, Dec 03, 2019
D6
Sat, Nov 30, 2019 - Sun, Dec 01, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250957
SPC AC 250957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in good agreement on Thursday with an
upper-level ridge in the eastern U.S. and an upper-level low on the
West Coast. On Friday, the models move the associated upper-level
trough quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest as a powerful 90
to 110 kt mid-level jet moves into the southern High Plains. In
response, strong moisture advection will take place in the southern
Plains with 60s F surface dewpoints streaming northward into north
Texas and Oklahoma. By Friday afternoon, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop from the Texas Hill Country
northward to near the Oklahoma-Kansas state line. Thunderstorms
should develop along the dryline and move quickly northeastward
across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early
evening. A severe threat appears probable with this activity. The
strong deep-layer shear should support supercell development. A
potential for all hazard types will exist with tornadoes, large hail
and wind damage possible. The models are in much better agreement
this cycle. A 15 percent contour has been added for the Day 5 period
to account for the anticipated severe threat.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the upper-level low should move eastward through the
north-central U.S. as a cold front advances quickly southeastward in
the western Gulf Coast states. A severe threat may develop along
parts of the front Saturday mainly in the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to
move quickly eastward across the eastern U.S. and into the western
Atlantic. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of a front
as it moves eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard by Sunday evening. A
marginal severe threat can not be ruled out along parts of the front
that can become weakly unstable.
..Broyles.. 11/25/2019
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