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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Updated: Thu Apr 9 08:56:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 88,682 7,964,870 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
15 % 189,373 26,913,247 Houston, TX...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 77,164 9,425,512 Jacksonville, FL...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Savannah, GA...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 9, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Apr 12, 2020 - Mon, Apr 13, 2020 D7Wed, Apr 15, 2020 - Thu, Apr 16, 2020
D5Mon, Apr 13, 2020 - Tue, Apr 14, 2020 D8Thu, Apr 16, 2020 - Fri, Apr 17, 2020
D6Tue, Apr 14, 2020 - Wed, Apr 15, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 090854
   SPC AC 090854

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z


   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears possible on Sunday
   across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly into
   Georgia by Sunday night. Tornadoes (potentially strong/long-tracked)
   and widespread damaging winds are expected to be the primary

   ...D4/Sunday: TX Gulf Coast eastward through the Southeast into the
   Ingredients for a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak appear
   likely to come together Sunday into Sunday night. An ejecting
   shortwave trough is forecast to take on a neutral to somewhat
   negative tilt by Sunday afternoon as it moves quickly
   east-northeastward across the Southeast states. Rich low-level
   moisture will be drawn inland from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of
   a deepening surface low that will move from the mid-MS Valley into
   the Ohio Valley by Monday morning. Moderate destabilization in
   conjunction with an 80-100 kt midlevel jet and 50-60 kt low-level
   jet will result in a very favorable environment for organized
   convection, including the potential for long-track supercells and a
   corresponding strong tornado risk. Very strong low/midlevel flow
   fields will also support widespread damaging wind potential. 

   Some uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of the most
   significant severe potential, given the presence of widespread
   convection in advance of the ejecting shortwave. Guidance also
   continues to trend slightly slower, with the GFS still a notably
   fast outlier. A 30% probability contour has been introduced from LA
   into central/southern MS/AL and southwest GA, where confidence is
   highest in the outbreak potential at this time.

   An organized severe thunderstorm threat will likely continue into
   Monday morning, with the potential for damaging wind and/or a few
   tornadoes likely spreading into portions of the Carolinas by 12Z

   ...D5/Monday: Coastal Carolinas into Southeast GA/Northern FL... 
   The severe threat will likely continue into at least Monday morning
   from portions of the Carolinas southward into northern FL. Very
   strong wind fields will support a threat of damaging winds and
   perhaps a few tornadoes before convection finally moves offshore
   sometime later in the day.

   ...D6/Tuesday - D7/Wednesday: Southeast...
   Predictability decreases substantially in the wake of the powerful
   system described above. The 09/00Z ECMWF depicts the development of
   a frontal wave across the northeast Gulf Tuesday night, which then
   moves northeastward into GA and the eastern Carolinas into
   Wednesday. Such a scenario would support some severe threat along
   and south of the low track, but there is little model agreement at
   this time range.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 04/09/2020

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