Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 3, 2020
Updated: Sun May 3 08:06:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, May 06, 2020 - Thu, May 07, 2020
D7
Sat, May 09, 2020 - Sun, May 10, 2020
D5
Thu, May 07, 2020 - Fri, May 08, 2020
D8
Sun, May 10, 2020 - Mon, May 11, 2020
D6
Fri, May 08, 2020 - Sat, May 09, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030804
SPC AC 030804
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited during the Day 4-8
period. Day 4/Wednesday will begin with a cold front stretching
across northern FL and the northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas
and surface high pressure across the Plains. An upper trough will
persist across the eastern U.S., with an amplified upper ridge
across the West. Gulf moisture will briefly spread northward across
the southern Plains late Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, as a
disturbance ejects eastward from the Rockies into the Plains,
resulting in lee cyclone development. This could result in some
severe potential across parts of OK or TX, ahead of another cold
front diving southward across the Plains. However, the warm sector
appears rather constrained and confidence is low given uncertainty
in convective coverage and timing of both moisture return and the
southward-developing cold front and upper shortwave impulse.
On Day 6/Friday, an unseasonably intense upper low/trough will
continue to dig southward across the eastern U.S. At the same time,
the surface cold front will quickly develop south and east across
the southern and eastern states, moving offshore of both the
Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Strong surface high pressure will dominate
east of the Rockies through next weekend, keeping Gulf moisture well
offshore, negating severe potential.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2020
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