Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 5, 2020
Updated: Tue May 5 08:02:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, May 08, 2020 - Sat, May 09, 2020
D7
Mon, May 11, 2020 - Tue, May 12, 2020
D5
Sat, May 09, 2020 - Sun, May 10, 2020
D8
Tue, May 12, 2020 - Wed, May 13, 2020
D6
Sun, May 10, 2020 - Mon, May 11, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050759
SPC AC 050759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CDT Tue May 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Some severe potential could continue into Day 4/Fri ahead of a
surface low and southward-advancing cold front from the TX Gulf
Coast eastward across parts of LA and maybe southern MS. However,
timing of the front and degree of destabilization across the region
before the front moves offshore is uncertain, precluding severe
probabilities at this time.
Otherwise, severe potential appears low for much of the rest of the
period from Day 5/Sat into Day 7/Mon. A deep upper trough will
persist east of the Rockies. The cold front from Day 4/Fri will move
southward, deep in the Gulf and a dearth of boundary layer moisture
will exist in its wake. By Day 8/Tue, medium-range guidance depicts
an upper ridge spreading eastward toward the Rockies with lee
surface low development over the central/southern High Plains.
Boundary layer moisture will likely remain poor during this time.
However, some modest increase in severe potential could develop near
the end, or just after the end of the period as a substantial
pattern change begins with the exit of the eastern trough and an
upper low/trough approaching the Pacific Coast.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2020
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