Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 8, 2020
Updated: Fri May 8 08:52:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, May 11, 2020 - Tue, May 12, 2020
D7
Thu, May 14, 2020 - Fri, May 15, 2020
D5
Tue, May 12, 2020 - Wed, May 13, 2020
D8
Fri, May 15, 2020 - Sat, May 16, 2020
D6
Wed, May 13, 2020 - Thu, May 14, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080850
SPC AC 080850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Fri May 08 2020
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern is forecast to shift away from western CONUS ridging
on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday as the ridge dampens and progresses
across the Plains. This will limit frontal passages and allow
low-level moisture to return across the Plains. Most recent guidance
suggests a subtle shortwave trough will move into the central Plains
on D6/Wednesday, contributing to the potential for severe weather as
it enhances wind fields and interacts with the moistening air mass.
Medium-range guidance has shown relatively good agreement with this
overall forecast scenario, although the extent and quality of the
low-level moisture has varied somewhat. Given the warm mid-level
temperatures that will likely be in place, the quality of the
moisture return will be critical for air mass destabilization.
Forecast uncertainties exist regarding the extent and quality of the
moisture return as well as the speed and strength of the shortwave,
precluding enough forecast confidence to outlook any areas.
After D6/Wednesday, low-level moisture looks to remain in place
through the remainder of the week with no strong shortwaves
currently forecast. As a result, the preceding day's storms location
and intensity will strongly influence severe potential, leading to
low predictability.
..Mosier.. 05/08/2020
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