Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 9, 2020
Updated: Sat May 9 08:58:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
90,831
1,735,426
Lawton, OK...Enid, OK...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Garden City, KS...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, May 12, 2020 - Wed, May 13, 2020
D7
Fri, May 15, 2020 - Sat, May 16, 2020
D5
Wed, May 13, 2020 - Thu, May 14, 2020
D8
Sat, May 16, 2020 - Sun, May 17, 2020
D6
Thu, May 14, 2020 - Fri, May 15, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090856
SPC AC 090856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat May 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern
will trend more zonal by early next week, favoring deeper lee
troughing and low-level moisture return across the Plains. The upper
pattern is forecast to remain void of any systems strong and/or
mature enough to scour the low-level moisture out of the Plains or
MS Valley through the end of next week, setting the stages for an
active week as subtle shortwave troughs and their attendant surface
lows/front interact with the moist low levels.
On each day the previous day's convective evolution will have a
large influence on severe potential, leading to generally low
predictability. The only exception is D5/Wednesday, which looks to
be the first day where the favorable low-level moisture is far
enough north of interact with a subtle shortwave ejecting into the
central Plains. Supercell wind profiles and steep lapse rates will
be in place to support severe potential with any storms that develop
along the dryline. Severe potential exists on D6/Thursday,
particularly from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley, but
limited predictability and questions regarding the northeastward
extent of the moisture return preclude outlooking any areas yet.
Model solutions begin to diverge more after D6/Thursday, limiting
forecast confidence. However, with favorable low-level moisture
expected to remain in place across the Plains, some severe threat
will persist into the weekend.
..Mosier.. 05/09/2020
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