Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 10, 2020
Updated: Sun May 10 08:28:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
72,703
3,481,546
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, May 13, 2020 - Thu, May 14, 2020
D7
Sat, May 16, 2020 - Sun, May 17, 2020
D5
Thu, May 14, 2020 - Fri, May 15, 2020
D8
Sun, May 17, 2020 - Mon, May 18, 2020
D6
Fri, May 15, 2020 - Sat, May 16, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100826
SPC AC 100826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong moisture return is anticipated into the central Plains on
D4/Wednesday, modifying the dry continental air mass previously in
place. Moderate to strong instability will develop across OK and KS
ahead of a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough expected to move
into the central Plains Wednesday evening. Supercell wind profiles
will be in place and the potential for all severe hazards will exist
from the far eastern TX Panhandle/western OK into central KS from
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Moist and unstable conditions will exist from the southern Plains
through the lower MO Valley on D5/Thursday, but the lack of a
discernible shortwave trough/stronger forcing for ascent results in
uncertainty regarding convective initiation. Additionally, model
guidance begins to diverge at this time, particularly regarding the
evolution of the surface pattern. Given the ample low-level moisture
and strong instability, some severe threat will likely be realized
from D5/Thursday through D7/Saturday from the southern/central
Plains into the Mid MS Valley, but predictability is currently too
low to accurately identify where these hazards will materialize.
..Mosier.. 05/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
