Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 11, 2020
Updated: Mon May 11 08:56:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, May 14, 2020 - Fri, May 15, 2020
D7
Sun, May 17, 2020 - Mon, May 18, 2020
D5
Fri, May 15, 2020 - Sat, May 16, 2020
D8
Mon, May 18, 2020 - Tue, May 19, 2020
D6
Sat, May 16, 2020 - Sun, May 17, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110854
SPC AC 110854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A moist low-level air mass is expected to persist beneath a
well-defined EML across the southern and central Plains through the
weekend. However, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that
the stronger shortwaves (and attendant enhancements in the mid-level
flow) will remain over the northern CONUS, displaced north of the
favorable instability. Even so, the strong instability suggests that
a severe threat will continue into the weekend, although forecast
uncertainty and limited predictability preclude delineated any areas
with this outlook.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along a cold front D4/Thursday from
the Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains. Moderate vertical
shear is anticipated from the Upper MS Valley through the MO Valley
but instability will likely be limited by widespread cloud cover.
Convective initiation along the front farther south across KS and OK
is less certain due to warm mid-level temperatures.
For D5/Friday, a broad and relatively weak shortwave trough is
expected to move into the southern Plains, where a strongly buoyant
air mass will be in place. Uncertainty regarding the previous day's
convective evolution reduced forecast confidence in the location of
the best severe potential. Additionally, vertical shear is forecast
to be relatively weak.
For the remainder of the forecast period (D6/Saturday through
D8/Monday), predictability will be limited by lack of well-defined
systems. Many of the shortwave troughs predicted by the guidance
appear to be convectively generated, which limits forecast
confidence. Predictability issues are also evidenced by the
run-to-run and model-to-model variability during this time frame.
..Mosier.. 05/11/2020
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