Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 14, 2020
Updated: Thu May 14 08:55:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, May 17, 2020 - Mon, May 18, 2020
D7
Wed, May 20, 2020 - Thu, May 21, 2020
D5
Mon, May 18, 2020 - Tue, May 19, 2020
D8
Thu, May 21, 2020 - Fri, May 22, 2020
D6
Tue, May 19, 2020 - Wed, May 20, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140852
SPC AC 140852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest into
the OH Valley on D4/Sunday before then slowing its forward speed as
it matures and drifts gradually southeastward towards the central
Appalachians on D5/Monday. Most recent guidance suggest this system
will then occlude and remains largely stationary over the eastern
CONUS through D8/Thursday.
Upper ridging is expected across the central CONUS in the wake of
the Upper Midwest/OH Valley shortwave trough while another broad
upper trough moves into the western CONUS. The end result in a
well-defined omega block pattern across the CONUS on D5/Monday. This
omega block is currently forecast to remain in place until at least
D7/Wednesday.
Overall, the organized severe potential appears low throughout the
period. Some severe thunderstorms may materialize downstream of each
of these upper troughs but predictability of both coverage and
location of any threats is low.
..Mosier.. 05/14/2020
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