Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 16, 2020
Updated: Sat May 16 08:54:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, May 19, 2020 - Wed, May 20, 2020
D7
Fri, May 22, 2020 - Sat, May 23, 2020
D5
Wed, May 20, 2020 - Thu, May 21, 2020
D8
Sat, May 23, 2020 - Sun, May 24, 2020
D6
Thu, May 21, 2020 - Fri, May 22, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160851
SPC AC 160851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An increasingly amplified regime across much of the U.S. by early
next week may persist through the middle to latter portions of the
work week, before perhaps trending more zonal/progressive by early
next weekend. This transition could commence as early as Wednesday,
when models suggest that bulk of the significant Western U.S.
mid-level troughing, and remnants of an embedded closed low, will
accelerate northeastward across the northern Rockies, before
deamplifying across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity
Thursday into Friday. Deepening surface troughing across eastern
Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas and Nebraska could
become a focus for organized severe thunderstorm development.
However, the extent of this potential remains at least somewhat
unclear, due, among other factors, to the broad mid-level cut-off
low over the Southeast, and its influence on low-level moisture
return through the Plains. Moisture return may remain confined to a
narrow corridor across the higher plains, and of modest content
relative to a fairly warm and potentially capping mid-level
environment.
Otherwise, as the pattern transitions, severe weather potential
could increase across the northern and central Plains next weekend.
However, low-level moisture remains a concern and may not become
supportive of more than relatively minor severe weather events until
beyond this period.
..Kerr.. 05/16/2020
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