Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 19, 2020
Updated: Tue May 19 08:39:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, May 22, 2020 - Sat, May 23, 2020
D7
Mon, May 25, 2020 - Tue, May 26, 2020
D5
Sat, May 23, 2020 - Sun, May 24, 2020
D8
Tue, May 26, 2020 - Wed, May 27, 2020
D6
Sun, May 24, 2020 - Mon, May 25, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190836
SPC AC 190836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will encompass much of the
western U.S., Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley at the outset of
the period. And one or two short wave troughs emerging from the
Intermountain West could contribute areas of strong to severe
thunderstorm development late this week through much of the Memorial
Day weekend, mainly across parts of the central and northern Plains
into the Great Lakes region. However, the predictability of these
features, as the mid-latitude westerlies transition to a more
progressive and zonal regime shifting to the northern of the
Canadian/U.S. border by early next week, appears generally low.
With little readily evident to suggest more than relatively modest
severe weather risk for the time of year, severe weather
probabilities at this extended range are being maintained at less
than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 05/19/2020
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