Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 22, 2020
Updated: Fri May 22 08:00:07 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, May 25, 2020 - Tue, May 26, 2020
D7
Thu, May 28, 2020 - Fri, May 29, 2020
D5
Tue, May 26, 2020 - Wed, May 27, 2020
D8
Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
D6
Wed, May 27, 2020 - Thu, May 28, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220758
SPC AC 220758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Some timing difference exist but medium-range guidance is in
relatively good agreement that the upper flow splits as the trough
moves into the Plains on D5/Tuesday or D6/Wednesday. The northern
stream will retreat to the US/Canada border while a closed cyclone
develops over the southern Plains, flanked by two strong
anticyclones over the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will
likely result in a large area of high precipitation totals across
the southern and central Plains by the end of the week. However,
with the stronger westerlies displaced north of the better low-level
moisture/instability, any severe potential will depend primarily on
mesoscale factors and a organized severe event appears unlikely.
..Mosier.. 05/22/2020
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