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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 23, 2020
Updated: Sat May 23 07:55:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 23, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, May 26, 2020 - Wed, May 27, 2020 D7Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
D5Wed, May 27, 2020 - Thu, May 28, 2020 D8Sat, May 30, 2020 - Sun, May 31, 2020
D6Thu, May 28, 2020 - Fri, May 29, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230753
   SPC AC 230753

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an upper low will
   drift within the southern-stream over the southern Plains from
   D4/Tuesday through at least D7/Friday, its progress impeded by
   strong subtropical ridging over the eastern CONUS. An active
   northern stream is expected, but its location along the US/Canada
   border will keep it north of the low-level moisture and instability
   needed for an organized severe-thunderstorm event.

   ..Mosier.. 05/23/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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