Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 24, 2020
Updated: Sun May 24 08:12:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, May 27, 2020 - Thu, May 28, 2020
D7
Sat, May 30, 2020 - Sun, May 31, 2020
D5
Thu, May 28, 2020 - Fri, May 29, 2020
D8
Sun, May 31, 2020 - Mon, Jun 01, 2020
D6
Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240810
SPC AC 240810
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an upper low will
drift over the southern Plains through at least D5/Thursday. The
blocking pattern is forecast to break down on D6/Friday and
D7/Saturday as a strong northern-stream shortwave impinges on the
eastern CONUS ridging. A separate shortwave trough is expected to
move over the central West Coast into the western periphery of the
western CONUS ridge. While some localized strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible each day, the displacement between the
stronger flow aloft and the better low-level moisture/instability
will limit the potential for an organized severe-thunderstorm event.
..Mosier.. 05/24/2020
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