Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 25, 2020
Updated: Mon May 25 08:42:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, May 28, 2020 - Fri, May 29, 2020
D7
Sun, May 31, 2020 - Mon, Jun 01, 2020
D5
Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
D8
Mon, Jun 01, 2020 - Tue, Jun 02, 2020
D6
Sat, May 30, 2020 - Sun, May 31, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250840
SPC AC 250840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern at the beginning of the extended period (D4/Thursday)
is expected to feature split flow, with the southern-stream
characterized by an upper cyclone centered over the Arklatex and two
flanking upper ridges. Primary feature within the northern stream
will be a shortwave trough extending from northwest Ontario into
central SD. This northern-stream shortwave is forecast to progress
eastward through Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes before continuing
through Quebec on D5/Friday. Attendant surface low will take a
similar path while an associated cold front moves across the
Northeast on D5/Friday. Thunderstorms are possible along this front,
including the potential for a few strong/severe storms, although
uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity remains high at this
forecast range.
Within the southern-stream, meandering upper cyclone will contribute
to showers and thunderstorms across the lower MS Valley and
Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday.
Previously mentioned northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to
break down the blocking ridge that has been in place over the
eastern CONUS on D5/Friday. Even so, the split-flow upper pattern
appears probable through the weekend as a strong upper ridge builds
over the western CONUS and then drifts into the Plains by D7/Sunday.
..Mosier.. 05/25/2020
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