Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2020
Updated: Tue May 26 08:30:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
D7
Mon, Jun 01, 2020 - Tue, Jun 02, 2020
D5
Sat, May 30, 2020 - Sun, May 31, 2020
D8
Tue, Jun 02, 2020 - Wed, Jun 03, 2020
D6
Sun, May 31, 2020 - Mon, Jun 01, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260828
SPC AC 260828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will progress eastward from central Ontario/Upper
Great Lakes through much of Quebec on D4/Friday. An associated
surface low will move ahead of it while a cold front attendant to
this low moves across the Northeast. Mid-60s dewpoints and modest
instability may be in place ahead of this front, contributing to the
potential for strong to severe storms. Given some of the model
variability regarding frontal timing and quality of the low-level
moisture, forecast uncertainty is too high to outlook any areas at
this range.
Upper ridging over much of the western CONUS early D4/Friday is
forecast to shift eastward, reaching the Plains by D6/Sunday. At the
same time, a strong shortwave trough will move through the western
periphery of this ridge, moving from central CA through the Pacific
Northwest and eventually cresting the ridge over the Canadian
Prairie Provinces. This shortwave may contribute to
severe-thunderstorm potential across the northern High Plains on
D6/Sunday and northern/central Plains on D7/Monday. However,
predictability remains low at this forecast range.
..Mosier.. 05/26/2020
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