Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 28, 2020
Updated: Thu May 28 08:36:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, May 31, 2020 - Mon, Jun 01, 2020
D7
Wed, Jun 03, 2020 - Thu, Jun 04, 2020
D5
Mon, Jun 01, 2020 - Tue, Jun 02, 2020
D8
Thu, Jun 04, 2020 - Fri, Jun 05, 2020
D6
Tue, Jun 02, 2020 - Wed, Jun 03, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280834
SPC AC 280834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern is forecast to amplify on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday as
the central CONUS ridging builds and the two flanking upper troughs
deepen. Presence of this upper ridging will push the stronger
westerly flow aloft northward into south-central Canada. Some
stronger flow aloft is also possible across the Northeast with an
shortwave troughs that crest the ridge and then move southeastward
into that region. Even if that occurs, it will be displaced eastward
of the better low-level moisture and instability, which is forecast
to be over the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Middle MS
Valley on early next week. Background upper ridging suggests a
widespread severe-weather event is unlikely, but the strong
instability over these regions will likely support a
mesoscale-driven severe risk.
..Mosier.. 05/28/2020
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