Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 29, 2020
Updated: Fri May 29 08:53:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jun 01, 2020 - Tue, Jun 02, 2020
D7
Thu, Jun 04, 2020 - Fri, Jun 05, 2020
D5
Tue, Jun 02, 2020 - Wed, Jun 03, 2020
D8
Fri, Jun 05, 2020 - Sat, Jun 06, 2020
D6
Wed, Jun 03, 2020 - Thu, Jun 04, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290851
SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified upper-level pattern will prevail across the CONUS
through the early/middle part of next week. An upper ridge will
remain centered over the south-central CONUS, with prevalent
upper-level troughing over the Southwest States and western
Atlantic. A semi-progressive belt of westerlies will be relegated to
the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. While severe
thunderstorms will be possible each day, sub-optimal ingredients
and/or mesoscale-related uncertainties preclude any 15+ percent
outlook delineations at this time.
For Day 4/Monday, an unstable air mass is expected near an
east/southeastward-moving front across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest including parts of the Dakotas/Nebraska into Minnesota.
While at least some severe risk may exist, there are key
uncertainties including the degree of mid-level capping and
coverage/likelihood of thunderstorms.
On Day 5/Tuesday, the previously mentioned front may be a focus for
severe thunderstorm development as it decelerates/stalls from the
north-central High Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.
Into Day 6/Wednesday and Day 7/Thursday, a more favorable pattern
for MCS development may materialize across parts of the Midwest/Ohio
Valley to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States as an
increasingly moist/unstable air mass will reside along and south of
a roughly west/east-oriented front across these regions. The
north-central High Plains may also be a continued regional focus for
at least isolated severe thunderstorms.
..Guyer.. 05/29/2020
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