Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 30, 2020
Updated: Sat May 30 08:54:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jun 02, 2020 - Wed, Jun 03, 2020
D7
Fri, Jun 05, 2020 - Sat, Jun 06, 2020
D5
Wed, Jun 03, 2020 - Thu, Jun 04, 2020
D8
Sat, Jun 06, 2020 - Sun, Jun 07, 2020
D6
Thu, Jun 04, 2020 - Fri, Jun 05, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300851
SPC AC 300851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified upper-level pattern will prevail across the CONUS
through the middle/late part of next week. An upper ridge will
remain centered over the southern Plains/Four Corners area, with a
semi-progressive belt of westerlies relegated to the northern tier
of the CONUS and Canada. While severe thunderstorms will be possible
each day, guidance variability and/or mesoscale-related
uncertainties currently preclude any 15+ percent outlook
delineations.
On Day 4/Tuesday, a south/southeastward-shifting front should be a
focus for at least isolated severe thunderstorm development from the
north-central High Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.
Into Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday, a more favorable pattern
for MCS development should materialize across parts of the
Midwest/Ohio Valley to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States.
This will be as a modest belt of westerlies aloft overlies an
increasingly moist/unstable air mass along and south of a roughly
west/east-oriented front across these regions.
The severe-weather risk should also increase across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest during the last half of the week, including
Days 6/Thursday and Day 7/Friday. This risk could potentially
include areas such as eastern Montana and the Dakotas to Minnesota.
..Guyer.. 05/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
