Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 31, 2020
Updated: Sun May 31 09:02:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jun 03, 2020 - Thu, Jun 04, 2020
D7
Sat, Jun 06, 2020 - Sun, Jun 07, 2020
D5
Thu, Jun 04, 2020 - Fri, Jun 05, 2020
D8
Sun, Jun 07, 2020 - Mon, Jun 08, 2020
D6
Fri, Jun 05, 2020 - Sat, Jun 06, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310900
SPC AC 310900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners area and
southern Plains through the week, with a semi-progressive belt of
westerlies across the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. While
severe thunderstorms will be possible each day,
spatial/mesoscale-related uncertainties preclude 15+ percent outlook
delineations at this time.
On Day 4/Wednesday, a modestly strong belt of westerlies will likely
overlie a moist/unstable air mass along and south of a roughly
west/east-oriented front from the central Plains to the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic states. Multiple corridors of severe
thunderstorms can be expected, most probable from the
Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity into the Ohio Valley.
For Day 5/Thursday, isolated severe thunderstorms could occur near
the southward-shifting front from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley
and southern Appalachians. Other severe thunderstorms could occur
across the Upper Midwest/Middle Missouri River Valley near an
advancing front.
The severe-weather risk should increase across the northern High
Plains through Day 6/Friday and Day 7/Saturday.
..Guyer.. 05/31/2020
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