Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 1, 2020
Updated: Mon Jun 1 09:12:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
37,630
783,395
Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Brookings, SD...Mitchell, SD...Yankton, SD...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 04, 2020 - Fri, Jun 05, 2020
D7
Sun, Jun 07, 2020 - Mon, Jun 08, 2020
D5
Fri, Jun 05, 2020 - Sat, Jun 06, 2020
D8
Mon, Jun 08, 2020 - Tue, Jun 09, 2020
D6
Sat, Jun 06, 2020 - Sun, Jun 07, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010909
SPC AC 010909
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will initially be centered over the Four Corners area
and southern High Plains during the middle of the week.
Semi-progressive westerlies will remain across the northern tier of
the CONUS and Canada. An amplification of the large-scale pattern
will likely occur into Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday as the upper
ridge builds over the Plains ahead of an upper trough ejecting
northeastward over the Southwest States/central Rockies.
For Day 4/Thursday, at least isolated severe thunderstorms can be
expected near the southward-shifting front from the Ozarks to the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic
region. While severe thunderstorms can be expected, modest
westerlies aloft and mesoscale uncertainties related to prior-day
convection preclude a 15% percent graphical delineation. Across the
north-central Plains, severe thunderstorms including a risk for
supercells currently appears most probable across eastern South
Dakota/northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota
within an unstable environment near a west/east-oriented front.
On Day 5/Friday, the building upper ridge across the Plains leads to
some uncertainty, but isolated strong/severe thunderstorms could
occur across the Lower Missouri Valley to Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians. Some severe risk may also exist across parts
of Montana and the adjacent northern High Plains.
Severe weather-potential may further increase across the
northern/central High Plains on Day 6/Saturday.
..Guyer.. 06/01/2020
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