Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 2, 2020
Updated: Tue Jun 2 08:59:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jun 05, 2020 - Sat, Jun 06, 2020
D7
Mon, Jun 08, 2020 - Tue, Jun 09, 2020
D5
Sat, Jun 06, 2020 - Sun, Jun 07, 2020
D8
Tue, Jun 09, 2020 - Wed, Jun 10, 2020
D6
Sun, Jun 07, 2020 - Mon, Jun 08, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020857
SPC AC 020857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplification of the large-scale pattern is expected through Day
4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday as the upper ridge builds over the
Plains ahead of an upper trough ejecting northeastward over the
Southwest States/central Rockies. Guidance variability and/or
mesoscale uncertainties preclude any 15+% graphical outlook areas at
this time, although some regional areas of severe potential are
noted below.
For Day 4/Friday, the building upper ridge across the Plains leads
to some uncertainty, but isolated strong/severe thunderstorms could
occur across the Lower Missouri Valley/Middle Mississippi River
Valley. Some severe risk may also exist across parts of Montana and
the adjacent northern High Plains.
On Day 5/Saturday, an amplifying East Coast upper trough and a
southeastward-moving cold front may focus severe thunderstorms
across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States.
As the western CONUS trough becomes prominent, severe
weather-potential is expected to also increase across parts of
Montana and the northern High Plains on Day 5/Saturday. This risk
should shift eastward into additional portions of the Dakotas and
possibly Nebraska/Minnesota on Day 6/Sunday.
..Guyer.. 06/02/2020
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