Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 5, 2020
Updated: Fri Jun 5 08:52:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jun 08, 2020 - Tue, Jun 09, 2020
D7
Thu, Jun 11, 2020 - Fri, Jun 12, 2020
D5
Tue, Jun 09, 2020 - Wed, Jun 10, 2020
D8
Fri, Jun 12, 2020 - Sat, Jun 13, 2020
D6
Wed, Jun 10, 2020 - Thu, Jun 11, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050849
SPC AC 050849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Monday/D4, an upper trough will remain over the West, with a
leading speed max over the northern Plains. Models differ on the
strength of this wave, which has implication for the position of the
surface low and cold front. Therefore, while deep-layer shear will
exist over the entire region, predictability is low. Regardless, at
least isolated severe storms will be possible, either over the
Dakotas or into Minnesota.
Farther south, depending on the strength of the wind fields
associated with Cristobal, there may be a marginal tornado risk as
mid 70s F dewpoints spread across LA, MS, and AR.
By Tuesday/D5, the western trough is forecast to surge east across
the Plains, with the remnants of Cristobal lifting rapidly north
toward the Great Lakes. This interaction with the western
trough/resulting wind and mass fields will be complex, but it is
possible that areas of severe potential will become evident from the
ARKLATEX/Lower MS Valley northward across the middle and upper MS
Valley. Moisture will be most robust over southern areas ahead of a
cold front, but this area will also be in the wake of Cristobal,
lending uncertainty to large-scale ascent. Otherwise, low-level
shear is likely to strengthen over northern areas, but widespread
precipitation may lessen destabilization.
Predictability decreases among the models beyond Tuesday/D5, as the
upper trough/low moves across Canada and the Great Lakes region, and
an upper ridge builds over the Plains.
..Jewell.. 06/05/2020
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