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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Updated: Sat Jun 6 08:34:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Jun 09, 2020 - Wed, Jun 10, 2020 D7Fri, Jun 12, 2020 - Sat, Jun 13, 2020
D5Wed, Jun 10, 2020 - Thu, Jun 11, 2020 D8Sat, Jun 13, 2020 - Sun, Jun 14, 2020
D6Thu, Jun 11, 2020 - Fri, Jun 12, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060832
   SPC AC 060832

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   On Tuesday/D4, the remnants of Cristobal will accelerate north
   across MO, IL and WI, under the influence of the Plains trough. The
   associated surface low is forecast to deepen again, mainly after
   00Z, and the ECMWF is much deeper with the low than the GFS. 

   While wind fields with this feature will remain formidable, models
   indicate very weak instability, perhaps a few hundred J/kg and with
   poor lapse rates. While low-end tornado potential cannot be ruled
   out east of the low track due to corridors of strong low-level
   shear, predictability is too low to confidently place a risk area.

   To the west of the lead wave/Cristobal remnants, a cold front will
   progress east, stretching from MN to TX on Tuesday. Instability
   looks to be strongest south of the primary surface low, and ahead of
   the primary upper trough, but rapid drying is forecast due to
   strong, west/northwest 850 mb flow. This rapidly changing scenario
   may require at least low severe probabilities in the upcoming Day 3
   outlook.

   By Wednesday/D5, the large-scale trough will become negatively
   tilted, ejecting northeast across the Great Lakes, with height rises
   from the OH Valley southward. Therefore, while a cold front will
   likely focus thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, lack of
   large-scale support or appreciable winds aloft suggest perhaps
   localized strong wind gusts from the OH/TN Valleys to the Gulf
   Coast.

   Through the remainder of the period, upper ridging over the Plains
   appears to be the most likely scenario as depicted by the ECMWF,
   with only general thunderstorms along the cold front as it stalls
   over the Carolinas, GA and FL.

   ..Jewell.. 06/06/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: September 21, 2020
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