Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 6, 2020
Updated: Sat Jun 6 08:34:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jun 09, 2020 - Wed, Jun 10, 2020
D7
Fri, Jun 12, 2020 - Sat, Jun 13, 2020
D5
Wed, Jun 10, 2020 - Thu, Jun 11, 2020
D8
Sat, Jun 13, 2020 - Sun, Jun 14, 2020
D6
Thu, Jun 11, 2020 - Fri, Jun 12, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060832
SPC AC 060832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, the remnants of Cristobal will accelerate north
across MO, IL and WI, under the influence of the Plains trough. The
associated surface low is forecast to deepen again, mainly after
00Z, and the ECMWF is much deeper with the low than the GFS.
While wind fields with this feature will remain formidable, models
indicate very weak instability, perhaps a few hundred J/kg and with
poor lapse rates. While low-end tornado potential cannot be ruled
out east of the low track due to corridors of strong low-level
shear, predictability is too low to confidently place a risk area.
To the west of the lead wave/Cristobal remnants, a cold front will
progress east, stretching from MN to TX on Tuesday. Instability
looks to be strongest south of the primary surface low, and ahead of
the primary upper trough, but rapid drying is forecast due to
strong, west/northwest 850 mb flow. This rapidly changing scenario
may require at least low severe probabilities in the upcoming Day 3
outlook.
By Wednesday/D5, the large-scale trough will become negatively
tilted, ejecting northeast across the Great Lakes, with height rises
from the OH Valley southward. Therefore, while a cold front will
likely focus thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, lack of
large-scale support or appreciable winds aloft suggest perhaps
localized strong wind gusts from the OH/TN Valleys to the Gulf
Coast.
Through the remainder of the period, upper ridging over the Plains
appears to be the most likely scenario as depicted by the ECMWF,
with only general thunderstorms along the cold front as it stalls
over the Carolinas, GA and FL.
..Jewell.. 06/06/2020
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