Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 7, 2020
Updated: Sun Jun 7 08:42:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jun 10, 2020 - Thu, Jun 11, 2020
D7
Sat, Jun 13, 2020 - Sun, Jun 14, 2020
D5
Thu, Jun 11, 2020 - Fri, Jun 12, 2020
D8
Sun, Jun 14, 2020 - Mon, Jun 15, 2020
D6
Fri, Jun 12, 2020 - Sat, Jun 13, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070840
SPC AC 070840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A deep surface low and strong upper trough will move north across
the Great Lakes and into Ontario on Wednesday/D4, though there is
considerable spread among the models. The ECMWF is a slower solution
with the trailing cold front, and maintains a moist air mass during
the day over Lower MI, while others veer winds strongly and dry out
the area. As such, predictability is too low to introduce any areas.
Models are more aligned with southern portions of the cold front
across southern MS, AL and GA where it will where MUCAPE on the
order of 1500 J/kg appears likely. Winds aloft in these areas will
be weak, but at least isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
during the afternoon due to outflow.
By Thursday/D5, the front will stall over the Southeast, where a
moist and marginally unstable environment will remain, again with
weak winds aloft and marginal wind gust potential with daytime
thunderstorms.
For the Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 period, consensus is for an
upper ridge to develop over the central CONUS, with an upper
trough/low progressing slowly across the West. This may eventually
result in at least low-end severe potential over parts of the
northern Rockies/Plains.
..Jewell.. 06/07/2020
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