Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 13, 2020
Updated: Sat Jun 13 08:16:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jun 16, 2020 - Wed, Jun 17, 2020
D7
Fri, Jun 19, 2020 - Sat, Jun 20, 2020
D5
Wed, Jun 17, 2020 - Thu, Jun 18, 2020
D8
Sat, Jun 20, 2020 - Sun, Jun 21, 2020
D6
Thu, Jun 18, 2020 - Fri, Jun 19, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130813
SPC AC 130813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper low is forecast to remain over the Southeast for several
more days, with high pressure over much of the East. This will
continue to affect boundary layer moisture quality across the Plains
where southerly winds will persist beneath a weakening upper ridge.
For the Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5 period, an upper low will move
east from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains, with a
gradual shift in jet energy into Canada. A belt of strong southwest
winds aloft will shift east across the northern Plains and into the
upper MS Valley through Thursday/D6, along with a surface trough.
Although storms will be possible with this system from the Dakotas
into MN, the instability, in addition to the surface pattern, both
suggest low-end severe potential.
..Jewell.. 06/13/2020
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