Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 14, 2020
Updated: Sun Jun 14 08:17:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jun 17, 2020 - Thu, Jun 18, 2020
D7
Sat, Jun 20, 2020 - Sun, Jun 21, 2020
D5
Thu, Jun 18, 2020 - Fri, Jun 19, 2020
D8
Sun, Jun 21, 2020 - Mon, Jun 22, 2020
D6
Fri, Jun 19, 2020 - Sat, Jun 20, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140815
SPC AC 140815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A severe threat may develop across parts of the northern Plains on
Wednesday/D4 as a shortwave trough moves across the area, again with
marginal boundary-layer moisture quality due to high pressure over
the East. Predictability is currently low regarding wave timing.
In the wake of the initial D4 wave, at least moderate mid/upper
westerly flow is likely to persist over the northern and central
Plains and upper MS Valley through Thursday/D5 and perhaps Friday/D6
as the parent upper trough continues east across Canada. Timing of
any of these small-scale features is difficult, but potential does
exist for scattered severe storms over parts of the Plains to the
upper Great Lakes.
By Saturday/D7 into Sunday/D8, more robust low-level moisture will
return to much of the southern Plains and the lower MS and OH
Valleys as the upper low over the Southeast and surface high finally
exit the CONUS. Models are not in good agreement with potential
shortwave troughs affecting central parts of the US, but any
enhanced flow aloft impinging upon the moist air mass may eventually
result in areas of severe weather, perhaps MCS activity across the
central Plains and Midwest.
..Jewell.. 06/14/2020
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