Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 15, 2020
Updated: Mon Jun 15 08:49:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 18, 2020 - Fri, Jun 19, 2020
D7
Sun, Jun 21, 2020 - Mon, Jun 22, 2020
D5
Fri, Jun 19, 2020 - Sat, Jun 20, 2020
D8
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - Tue, Jun 23, 2020
D6
Sat, Jun 20, 2020 - Sun, Jun 21, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Thursday/D4, a speed max is forecast to affect the Dakotas and
MN, ahead of an upper low over SK and MB. Models have quite a bit of
spread regarding this feature, but in general is will lift northeast
and/or weaken. The associated cold front will also weaken, as the
main low will be in Canada. While no significant severe threat is
expected, thunderstorms will be possible along the stalling front
across the upper MS Valley into the mid MO Valley.
For Friday/D5 and Saturday/D6, the upper low over Canada is forecast
to drift east, maintaining modest westerlies aloft over the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley. Scattered storms will be possible from
the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, but any severe
threat will likely be focuses with low predictability.
For the Sunday/D7 to Monday/D8 period, models suggest the upper low
will be anywhere from Ontario to the Great Lakes, with the
possibility of moderate northwest flow aloft from the Plains to the
MS Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will continue to slowly increase
over much of the central and eastern CONUS during this period as
high pressure over the east weakens. Any severe threat over the
central or eastern CONUS will be highly unpredictable in this
scenario.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2020
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