Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 16, 2020
Updated: Tue Jun 16 08:01:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jun 19, 2020 - Sat, Jun 20, 2020
D7
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - Tue, Jun 23, 2020
D5
Sat, Jun 20, 2020 - Sun, Jun 21, 2020
D8
Tue, Jun 23, 2020 - Wed, Jun 24, 2020
D6
Sun, Jun 21, 2020 - Mon, Jun 22, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160759
SPC AC 160759
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For D4/Friday into D5/Saturday, the strongest mid/upper-level flow
is expected to remain north of where any appreciable destabilization
occurs. However, modest westerly to west-northwesterly midlevel flow
may support at least weakly organized convection over portions of
the central/southern Plains, in association with a frontal boundary.
Predictability regarding where the greatest threat may materialize
is still low at this time.
For D6/Sunday into early next week, substantial spread is noted in
extended range guidance regarding the upper-level pattern. However,
there is general agreement that the persistent surface ridge over
the Southeast should weaken with time, allowing for more substantial
low-level moisture to be advected northward into portions of the
Plains and Midwest. Periodic bouts of severe thunderstorms will be
possible wherever stronger midlevel flow impinges on areas of
increasing low-level moisture and instability, though predictability
regarding the details of any such severe episodes remains quite low
at this time.
..Dean.. 06/16/2020
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