Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 17, 2020
Updated: Wed Jun 17 08:38:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jun 20, 2020 - Sun, Jun 21, 2020
D7
Tue, Jun 23, 2020 - Wed, Jun 24, 2020
D5
Sun, Jun 21, 2020 - Mon, Jun 22, 2020
D8
Wed, Jun 24, 2020 - Thu, Jun 25, 2020
D6
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - Tue, Jun 23, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170836
SPC AC 170836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A somewhat more active severe weather pattern is expected this
weekend into early next week, though predictability concerns
preclude the delineation of any 15% probability areas with this
outlook.
...D4/Saturday-D5/Sunday: Central/southern Plains into the mid-MS
Valley ...
On D4/Saturday, a convectively-reinforced frontal boundary is
expected to extend from somewhere across OK/southern KS into
portions of the mid-MS Valley. Renewed thunderstorm development will
be possible in the vicinity of this boundary Saturday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves eastward out of the Plains. Wind profiles may
be sufficient to support some organized severe threat with this
activity into Saturday evening.
For D5/Sunday, northwesterly flow is forecast to become established
over the Plains as an upper ridge builds over the West. Depending on
the magnitude of low-level moisture return, this pattern would favor
development of strong thunderstorms over the High Plains Sunday
afternoon, potentially spreading southeastward as an MCS into a
broader portion of the central/southern Plains Sunday night.
...D6/Monday-D8/Wednesday...
Extended-range guidance is in generally good agreement maintaining a
western ridge and eastern trough into early next week, though spread
increases with time regarding the amplitude of these features and
the timing of any smaller-scale features embedded within the
longwave pattern. Northwesterly flow severe events would remain
possible in this pattern anywhere from the Plains/Midwest to the
Southeast, though predictability is much too low to specify timing
and location of any particular threats at this point.
..Dean.. 06/17/2020
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