Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 18, 2020
Updated: Thu Jun 18 08:52:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jun 21, 2020 - Mon, Jun 22, 2020
D7
Wed, Jun 24, 2020 - Thu, Jun 25, 2020
D5
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - Tue, Jun 23, 2020
D8
Thu, Jun 25, 2020 - Fri, Jun 26, 2020
D6
Tue, Jun 23, 2020 - Wed, Jun 24, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180849
SPC AC 180849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4/Sunday - A northwest flow regime will become established over
the central Plains in vicinity of a stalled, convectively reinforced
front. The atmosphere should become moderately unstable in vicinity
of and south of this boundary, and potential will exist for storms
to develop over the central High Plains and spread east and
southeast through KS and OK, possibly evolving into an MCS as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Damaging wind and hail
will be the main threats. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding
position of the front, as well as extent of any ongoing convection
and related outflow boundaries, will not introduce a categorical
risk area at this time. However, severe probabilities will likely be
required in the next day 3 outlook.
Day 5 and beyond - Pattern will remain characterized by a broad
trough in the east, and potential for northwest flow mcs/severe
events will persist from portions of the central and southern Plains
through the OH Valley at least into days 5-7. However,
predictability in this regime is inherently low.
..Dial.. 06/18/2020
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