Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 19, 2020
Updated: Fri Jun 19 08:55:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - Tue, Jun 23, 2020
D7
Thu, Jun 25, 2020 - Fri, Jun 26, 2020
D5
Tue, Jun 23, 2020 - Wed, Jun 24, 2020
D8
Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - Sat, Jun 27, 2020
D6
Wed, Jun 24, 2020 - Thu, Jun 25, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190852
SPC AC 190852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Monday /Day 4 Upper pattern will be characterized by a progressive
broad trough over the eastern third of the country. Thunderstorms
may be ongoing along attendant front across the mid to upper MS
valley region. Farther upstream across the central Plains and
southern Plains, a northwest flow regime will become established
within a moderately unstable warm sector. Strong to severe storms
may initiate along a secondary frontal surge across the central
Plains and spread southeast.
For day 5 a marginal/modest severe threat may spread into the
northeast states as the upper trough advances east, accompanied by a
cold front. Farther upstream the western portion of the cold front
will remain active within a northwesterly flow regime from the TN
Valley into the southern Plains.
Overall predictability in the day 4-8 time frame remains low due to
uncertainties imposed by antecedent convection as well as the
inherent limited predictability of northwest flow patterns in the
extended range.
..Dial.. 06/19/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
